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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Asset Classes & Their Returns

And the winner is: silver.

With a 66% return for investors this year in India, silver has outperformed most asset classes in 2010.

But that doesn't mean you should rush to buy silver coins in the New Year. If anything, the recent steep gains should be cause for skepticism about the potential for further profits.

"Maybe the story is already over, we don't know," says Narendra Kondajji, director of Procyon Financial Planners Pvt. Ltd. in Bangalore.

Besides, Mr. Kondajji says that like other precious metals silver can be hard to sell on short notice, so risk-averse investors should limit their exposure to commodities. "For a common investor, the major option to create wealth is investing in equities," says Mr. Kondajji.

Here's a look at how some popular investments fared in 2010:

Stock Indexes: 16% to 17%

If you had invested in an index of India's leading stocks at the beginning of the year, you would have earned a return of 16% or 17%.

The UTI Master Index Fund, which invests in the 30 stocks that comprise the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index or Sensex, was up 16% through Wednesday.

If you had bought the Benchmark Nifty BeES, an exchange-traded fund which tracks the returns of the S&P CNX Nifty Index, you would have earned 16.6%.

Stock Mutual Funds: 14.4%

Most individual investors prefer to buy one of those funds in which money managers attempt to beat the Sensex of Nifty or some other index. How have these done?

The average mutual fund which invests in stocks of large Indian companies was up 14.4% through Monday, according to data from research firm Morningstar India Pvt. Ltd. Of course, this means that some mutual funds did very well, while others did poorly.

One of the best-performing funds in Morningstar's large cap stock fund category was the HDFC Equity fund, which gained 27% in 2010. One of the worst-performing in the year was the Reliance Equity fund, which lost 1.3%.

A spokesman for the fund's money manager, Reliance Capital Asset Management Ltd., declined comment.

Balanced Mutual Funds: 6% to 12%

These are mutual funds which invest in both stocks and bonds. These funds are meant for risk-averse investors because bond prices don't swing as sharply as stock prices. On the other hand, lower risk means that these funds provide lower returns than pure stock funds.

A typical balanced fund which invests around two thirds of its money in stocks and one third in bonds, gained 12% this year, according to Morningstar. Meanwhile, funds which invest only up to 25% in stocks and the rest in bonds were up on average 6%. These funds are often called "Monthly Income Plans."

Bond Mutual Funds: 4% to 5%

Mutual funds which invest in short-term bonds gained an average of 4.5% this year. Medium-term bond funds, which often have the word "income" in their name, gained 5.1%.

Bond funds are used by investors as a substitute for bank fixed deposits, partly because returns on them are not subject to income tax whereas interest on fixed deposits is taxable. However, these funds are more volatile than fixed deposits.

Bank Fixed Deposits: 6.5% to 7%

At the beginning of 2010, one-year fixed deposits typically paid 6.5%. As interest rates have gone up lately, returns in 2011 will be higher. A one-year fixed deposit from ICICI Bank currently pays 7.75%, while the same from Bank of Baroda pays 8%.

Gold: 20%

A gold bar of 99.9% purity gained 23% through Tuesday, according to the Bombay Bullion Association. However, this return doesn't reflect the cost of buying, storing and selling the gold bar.

To avoid the hassle of safe-keeping etc., investors have lately been buying gold ETFs. These trade on a stock exchange like a stock, and are held in an electronic account in the investor's name. The ETF-provider buys physical gold proportionate to your investment and keeps it in a bank vault.

Benchmark's Gold BeEs ETF gained 19.6% for the year through Tuesday.

Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, expects gold prices to remain strong in 2011, but adds that an increase in interest rates in the U.S. could affect the demand for gold.

Silver: 66%

Silver prices in India rose 66% this year on the back of huge demand from global investors looking to make quick money on commodities. Prices have risen despite oversupply and poor industrial demand.

Barclays Capital expects that given the excess supply of silver, prices could be curbed in 2011. So, this might not be the best time to load up on it.

Mr. Kondajji, the financial planner, notes that for individual investors in India, this is a hard asset to buy because it's not available in an ETF format. He advises clients to "not go beyond 10%" for their overall allocation to commodities, including gold and silver.

Real estate: 5% to 30%

It's tough to measure the performance of real estate because prices vary by cities and neighborhoods.

Still, here's an estimate of how residential real estate prices have moved this year in three major Indian cities.

The smallest returns came in Bangalore, where apartment prices gained 5% to 10%, according to Gulam Zia, national director for research and advisory services at Knight Frank India Pvt. Ltd., a real estate consulting firm.

In Delhi, Mr. Zia estimates that prices went up between 10% and 20% but for some luxury apartments they gained as much as 25%.

Mumbai was the best-performer, with gains of 20% to 30% this year. However, Mr. Zia adds that toward the end of the year sales volumes of new apartments dropped and he expects prices to drop as much as 10% to 20% in the first few months of 2011.

"Buyers in Mumbai should wait for the next quarter or two," says Mr. Zia. He expects some decline in Delhi prices as well.

Given the large amounts of money required to buy real estate,

Monday, December 20, 2010

BBTCL - Good BUY Stock...

The Bombay Burmah Trading Corp. Ltd. (BBTCL), a part of the prestigious “WADIA Group” is one of the oldest companies of Pre-independence era, still flourishing with its core values, ethics and competency in trade. It is the second oldest publicly quoted company with an annual turnover of 45 million dollars. Post its immense success in the teak business, the company has diversified its interests in Tea, Coffee, Dental Products and Formica Laminates. BBTCL include investments in marquee companies like Britannia Industries Limited (BIL) and Bombay Dyeing and Mfg Co.

Investment Rationale:
Huge Value unlocking from Quoted & Un-quoted Investments:
BBTCL through its Mauritiusarm, Leila Lands has acquired 100% of Britannia Brand from Singapore based Danone Asia. Leila LandsRs indirect shareholding in Britannia Industries, increasing from 25.48% to 50.96%. With this acquisition, Britannia Brand has now become an indirect subsidiary of BBTCL and its arm, Leila Lands. As a result of which the Quoted Investment Portfolio of BBTCL increased by Rs. 2465 Crs.

Considering the Direct & Indirect Quoted Investment Portfolio of BBTL, we arrive at the Intrinsic Value of Rs. 2098/Share of BBTL. Assuming a Holding Company Discount Rate of 50%, we arrive at a fair value of Rs. 1049/Share which against a CMP of Rs 424/, BBTCL looks highly attractive investment opportunity.

Strong Brand & Diversified business model: BBTCL’s group of eight estates are situated in the district of 'Kodagu' (Coorg) in Karnataka State covering an area of approximately 4,105 sq.kms of which 2,822 hectares under tea produce 8 million kgs of Tea p.a. BBTCL holds the distinction of being amongst most eminent and reputed manufacturers and exporters of naturally grown “ Organic Tea”.

BBTCL also manufactures high quality Laminates under the brand name SUNMICA the name needs no introduction, In India it has become synonymous with top quality Laminates. On top of the product quality, SUNMICA has penetrated every nook and corner of the country. Indo Java Rubber Planting & Trading Company, wholly owned subsidiary of BBTC, undertakes plantation and processing of Rubber for which the company has nearly 1385 Hectares of good quality Rubber Plantations.

Venturing in Realty: BBTCL is pursuing Real Estate Development of its Properties at Kanjur Marg, Mumbai and Coimbatore. These assets have been converted into stock-in trade and all necessary permissions for development of the properties have been received, We expect the Company to unlock huge value by encashing the strong demand from the Realty Sector.

Price Outlook:
BBTCL at a CMP of Rs. 424/Share, is available at a fraction of its fair investment value considering its quoted & unquoted investment portfolio. We value the company applying an aggressive holding company discount of 70% on the intrinsic valuing the stock at Rs 629/share exclusive of BBTCL’s core business valuations. We recommend our Investors a Strong Buy with a 12-month price target of Rs 629/ Share and an upside potential of 48%

Friday, December 17, 2010

Economic Value Added (EVA) - Contemporary Yardstick to value the company.

Concept of Economic Value Added (EVA): The acronym EVA stands for 'Economic Value Added' which means how much extra-additional value is being added to the shareholders by generating operating profits in excess of the cost of capital employed in the business through efficient use of its capital.

Evolution of EVA: Traditional approaches to measuring ‘Shareholder’s Value Creation’ have used parameters such as earnings capitalization, market capitalization and present value of estimated future cash flows. Extensive equity research has now established that it is not earnings per se, but VALUE that is important. A new measure called ‘Economic Value Added’ (EVA) is increasingly being applied to understand and evaluate financial performance.

What does EVA show?
EVA is residual income after charging the Company for the cost of capital provided by lenders and shareholders. It represents the value added to the shareholders by generating operating profits in excess of the cost of capital employed in the business.


How to Calculate EVA?
EVA = Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT) – Cost of Capital Employed (COCE), where, NOPAT = Profits after depreciation and taxes but before interest costs. NOPAT thus represents the total pool of profits available on an ungeared basis to provide a return to lenders and shareholders, and

COCE = Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) x Average Capital Employed

WACC is nothing but a combination of weighted average cost of debt (adjusted for tax rate) and cost of equity.
* Cost of debt can be taken as a weighted average cost of debt (Weights of each and every debt in the company's debt multiplied by their respective interest rates) if it is not available then the effective rate of interest applicable to an “AAA” rated company with an appropriate mix of short, medium and long term debt, net of taxes.

* Cost of Equity is the return expected by the investors to compensate them for the variability in returns caused by fluctuating earnings and share prices.
Cost of Equity = Risk free return equivalent to yield on long term Government Bonds (can be taken at 7.62% for 2008-09)
(+)
Market risk premium (can be taken at 11%) (x) Beta variant for the Company, (can be taken as 1) where Beta is a relative measure of risk associated with the Company’s shares as against the market as a whole.

When will EVA increase?
EVA will increase if:
a. Operating profits can be made to grow without employing more capital, i.e. greater efficiency.
b. Additional capital is invested in projects that return more than the cost of obtaining new capital, i.e. profitable growth.
c. Capital is curtailed in activities that do not cover the cost of capital, i.e. liquidate unproductive capital.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Always Look for Corporate Governance Issues & Company's Leverage Position for Stock Picking in Indian Markets:

Corporate Governances Issues, Poor Financials,

Too-Much Diversification and High Debt kept many stocks down:

The benchmark index Sensex rebounded sharply to 20,000 level, reflecting a gain of 141% after a severe crash in March 2009 to 8,300 levels. The sharp rebound came on the back of strong foreign money inflow which has propelled the stocks to reach their historic levels. However, not all the stocks witnessed the rally in this season while a few have been brutally hammered. Even, brutal seems a mild word to describe the huge decline reported by companies that are struggling to recover. Capital market undertook a study to find out the reasons that why these companies failed to recover in tandem with sensex. For this study, the BSE closing price of 10 January 2008 was taken into consideration and was compared with 19 October 2010 closing price. Stocks listed on the BSE with market capitalization of Rs.500 crore and above as on 10 January 2008 were selected for this study.

The following are the 16 companies with market cap of above Rs10,000 crores have seen massive wealth erosion. These companies have shed almost 2/3rd of their market value for the period between 10th January, 2008 to 19th October, 2010.


The reasons for this kind of bloodbath in the stock market were mainly because of the following:

1) Poor corporate governance.

2) Business Losses.

3) Too much diversification.

4) High debt in the capital structure.

(I) Poor Corporate Governance: A good corporate governance record is the need of the hour now-a-days. The reason being, investors need to trust the company and its management before investing their hard earned money. Corporate Governance has become a very sensitive issue for the corporate because once the image of a company is damaged; it takes years to reinstate confidence of the shareholders and other stakeholders. Even the damage could be permanent.

The companies which had poor corporate governance issues were:

1) Satyam Computers Services: It is the biggest ever corporate scam in the Indian corporate history. In January 2009, B. Ramalinga Raju, the promoter of the company, confessed of accounting wrongdoings, which led to massive correction in its stock price. Its market capitalization has come down from over Rs.28,000 crores to less than Rs.10,000 crores.

2) Pyramid Saimira Theatre: The Company’s shareholders have been left mourned as the stock plunged severely 98% in less than two years. Its market capitalization has come down to mere Rs.24.7 crores in October, 2010 from Rs.1,300 crores in January, 2008. In April 2009, the Capital Market Regulator, SEBI debarred Nirmal Kotecha, a former promoter of the company, and over 250 entities from dealing in securities. As per SEBI’s investigation, Kotecha was the major beneficiary of stock manipulation that took place in December 2008. Its share price had skyrocketed owing to a fake SEBI letter mandating an open offer.

3) Prajay Engineers Syndicate: It is a Hyderabad based construction company which had nothing wrong with its financial statements. But, the statutory auditors of the company, while qualifying its books of accounts for the financial ending March 2008, have stated that they have not been able to obtain corroborative audit evidence for revenue of Rs.143.77 crores and related construction, development expenses of Rs.75.26 crore and debtors outstanding as on 31 March 2008, relating to the Prajay Harbour City Project. Against this, the company claimed that subsequent to the year end, a theft took place at the Visakhapatnam site office. All the books of accounts, supporting vouchers, records, sale agreements and a computer, where all the data were stored relating to this project, were found missing, though some of the records and documents were later retrieved.

4) House Development and Infrastructure (HDIL): The income tax department raided the office premises and residences of the promoters of HDIL in September 2009. During the course of the raid, the company agreed to book approximately Rs.350 crores as income in FY 2010. The stock is down 73% from its 10 January 2008 closing.

5) Prithvi Information Solutions: The Company’s statutory auditors, Walker & Chandiok, had resigned without completing the audit for FY2008-09. Subsequently, the company appointed V.K. Asthana & Company as its statutory auditors, with the approval of the shareholders. The auditors commented that during the year, withdrawals worth Rs.89 lakhs were made in cash from the company’s bank accounts and it has been further used for spending on salaries of staff of the software division. These expenses could not be explained satisfactorily by the company.

6) Cals Refineries: The Company’s statutory auditors commented that advances worth Rs.836 crores given to various contractors related to implementation of refinery project in FY2010 may not be recoverable in future.

(II) Business Losses: Besides Corporate Governance issue, the second reason is Business losses arising out of unfavorable economic conditions, high debt and industry specific challenges. Companies like MTNL, Kingfisher Airlines and Suzlon Energy eroded massive shareholder’s value worth Rs.2610 crores, Rs.1647.2 crores and Rs.1,414 crores respectively. The other companies which were in the queue were Vishal Retail, Reliance Media Works, HFCL, Bellary Steels & Alloys, Maytas Infra, Network 18 Media & Investments, Development Credit Bank, Tata Teleservices and Chemplast Sanmar.

The entire organized retail industry has come under pressure due to stiff competition and high real estate prices.

(A) Vishal Retail: The owner of the Vishal Mega Mart chain of retail stores is in complete financial mess as the company had very high debt/equity ratio of 4.25 times ending 31 March 2009. The company is also fighting a legal battle to survive as lenders have filed winding-up petition.

(B) Koutons Retail: The other one is Koutons Retail which is said to following the footsteps of Vishal Retail. However, its financial performance has been good with fairly reasonable debt-to-equity ratio of 1.38 times ending March 2010. The stock has come under pressure lately with market talk of default on debt obligations. It has reported 20% and 50% drop in sales and net profit for the quarter ended June 2010 over the previous year.

(III) Too Much Diversification in Bull-Run: The third reason for massive shareholder erosion is “Too much of diversification in the bull run”. Companies with better cash position went for too much of their business diversification during the bull phase as every industry was looking attractive at that time which ultimately led to cash crunch when the tables turned unfavorable for them. Not only these companies were stuck with slowdown in their core businesses but they also faced severe problems in funding their non-core businesses that they had forayed into. For e.g. some real estate firms were busy building land banks by acquiring debt.

(A) DLF: The Company during the sunny days of 2007 ventured into various businesses such as special economic zones (SEZs), hotels, resorts, asset management (mutual funds), infrastructure projects and organized retail. But due to sluggish economic conditions, the company was in rumors of planning to lay off its employees. Additionally, the company was also in rumors for defaulting in repayment of its financial obligations to banks and mutual funds.

(B) Unitech: The second largest property developer of the country was almost on the verge of defaulting its financial obligations due to cash crunch. The company ventured into business such as hotels, SEZs, IT parks, telecommunication infrastructure (transmission towers) and fund management. The company is now in the process of restructuring its business operations.

(IV) High Debt in Capital Structure: A very high level of debt is another reason for the debacle. Companies have over leveraged their balance sheets to cash in on business opportunities through Greenfield expansion and even acquisitions. Leveraged acquisitions going awry also resulted in massive erosion in the shareholders’ wealth. Companies with high debt-to-equity ratio are:

Higher Debt Led to Reduction in Promoter’s Equity: Among the worst performers, many companies witnessed a sharp reduction in promoter holding as these debt-ridden companies went for fresh equity issuance. The companies which have seen sharp reduction in promoter’s holding for a period of January, 2008 to September, 2010 are as follows:

source: Capital Market & BSE Sensex.

Editor: Jagdish Thanvi.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Introductory Letter....

Dear Investors,


Greetings!!!! From Thanvi (I) Enterprises……It gives us immense pleasure to inform you that the commencement of Thanvi (I) Enterprises will help the individuals and corporate in the financial consultancy arena. The firm has a sharp focus on providing investment and financial consultancy.


About Thanvi (I) Enterprises: Thanvi (I) Enterprises commenced in the year 2010 with a sharp focus on providing financial consultancy and investment advisory. We have dedicated team of three professionals with a strong financial industry background. Our team includes Jagdish Thanvi (Managing Partner), Neelam Vyas (Company Secretary) and Rajeev Thanvi (Sr. Executive Officer). It is our constant endeavor to serve our valuable customers in the financial consultancy and investment advisory in a better way……
We have our interest in the following areas:


1) Company Secretarial Services: We provide secretarial services like company incorporation (Proprietorship, Partnership, Limited Liability Partnership (LLP), Private Limited Companies, Section 25 companies etc… Besides this, we will also help you provide you secretarial services like E-Forms filings, DIN registration, Digital Signatures (DSC), recording of minutes etc...

2) Equity Markets: We have a dedicated focus in the Indian Equity market. We have a solid background in the Indian equity market. We provide equity advisory services like fundamental company specific reports, sectoral reports, trading calls, broking services etc…

3) Mutual Funds: We provide mutual fund advisory and broking services of varied mutual fund schemes, which is purely based on your investment goals and your liquidity stamina. We also provide mutual fund research reports on various schemes like Equity, Balanced, Debt, ELSS and Liquid…

4) Insurance: We provide insurance advisory and broking services of both life insurance and general insurance. We have tie-ups with Tata-AIG, LIC, ICICI Lombard etc…
We would like to have your perpetual association to make this mission…an accomplishment..

Thanks & Regards,

Jagdish Thanvi

(Managing Partner)